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Doom Assumptions

An interactive map of AI risk arguments. Different worldviews, one shared structure. Adjust the assumptions and see how the probabilities change.

Click a node to see its details.

Probability
Complement of:

Sensitivity Analysis

How much the final probability changes per 1pp change in each assumption (derivative)

Uncertainty Reduction

If you could resolve your uncertainty about one assumption, which would narrow your final range the most?

Crux Analysis

Pick two worldviews. The top row is the single assumption that, if agreed upon, would close the most disagreement on the final probability.

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